Presidents' Approval Ratings Often Rise After They …
Trump’s support has eroded over the past year, but it hasn’t, unlike other presidents, dipped or dropped dramatically. Instead, it’s bounced around that 40 percent mark. This likely speaks to the country’s deep partisan polarization: Democrats overwhelmingly disapprove of the president, while Trump’s Republican base has remained mostly loyal. For example, , 77 percent of Republicans approved of Trump. Only 7 percent of Democrats did. (And 31 percent of independents.)
President Trump Job Approval. President Trump Job Approval. 42.2
Taking all of the data into account splashes a bit of cold water on both ideological camps. On the one hand, it is clearly true that high gas prices often coincide with lower presidential approval ratings. As political scientists have long demonstrated, these approval ratings are a strong indicator of a president’s reelection chances. As we have seen, though, gas prices alone certainly are not a perfect predictor of approval ratings or, indirectly, reelection. While continually rising gas prices would likely weaken Obama’s reelection standing, it would be just one of many factors voters consider when evaluating his first term.
Gallup has an interesting up about the relationship between presidential approval ratings and the stock market. The short version: There isn’t one.
War is hell on presidents' approval ratings - latimes
To truly test the level of correlation, we can look at a scatterplot of the data, comparing gas prices (in real, inflation-adjusted numbers) and presidential approval ratings.
Donald Trump Favorable Rating - Polls - HuffPost Pollster
From this birds-eye view, it seems that there is some level of correlation between the two sets of data, especially during the Carter, George W. Bush and Obama presidencies. As gas prices rise (move towards the bottom of the graph), approval ratings fall (also move downwards).
Do you approve or disapprove of the way ..
The full story, as is often the case, is not entirely black and white. Comparing average monthly “real” gas prices (that is, controlling for inflation) to Gallup Poll data for presidential approval over the past six presidencies unveils some clear trends and helps explain the factors at work. The graph below charts presidential approval rate (in blue, with units shown on the left y-axis) and real gas prices (in green and on the right y-axis) over time, from Jimmy Carter’s inauguration in 1977 to the most recent data available in March 2011. The gas price data (provided by the federal Energy Information Administration) is presented “upside-down,” with higher prices shown lower on the y-axis to better demonstrate the potential correlation with approval ratings.
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First, there are a number of unusually high approval ratings for presidents when gas was roughly $3.50 per gallon. Actually, it is only unusually high approval ratings for one president, since when gas cost $3.25 or greater (in today’s dollars), only Ronald Reagan received a monthly approval rating higher than 55% and all seven instances were in his first year as president, 1981. One possible explanation for the severed tie between gas prices and approval ratings in this brief time period is that voters still blamed the previous president, Jimmy Carter, for the high gas prices and were willing to give Reagan the benefit of the doubt for a few months before placing the blame in his lap.
President Obama Job Approval - RealClearPolitics
Skeptics of the idea of a correlation between gas prices and presidential approval ratings wonder if these anecdotes are making meaning out of mere coincidence. After a temporary boost following the 9/11 terrorist attacks, George Bush’s approval ratings fell over the next several years, just as gas prices rose rapidly, but at that time Alan Abramowitz ably rebutted the claim that the ratings drop was a result of higher pump prices. Similarly, weekly approval numbers from earlier in Obama’s term seem to bear little relation to the gas prices at the time of those polls.